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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 691.66

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Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (45642)	4/11/2000 7:11:00 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Weekly Positive Economic Commentary... Does Inversion Imply Recession? ...Under these circumstances, then, it would be preferable to look at the spread between AAA corporates versus fed funds for information about the future behavior of the economy and whether Fed policy is starting to get some traction. If we make the (heroic?) assumption that this spread has regained some of its leading indicator characteristics, then we can say that its narrowing foreshadows some slowing in real GDP growth from its 4.6% growth in the past two years. But with this spread currently at a relatively lofty 160 basis points, it would seem that talk of a recession is premature at this point. ntrs.com Best Regards, John

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