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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME
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To: Paullie who wrote (23680)4/11/2000 7:57:00 PM
From: DlphcOracl  Read Replies (3) of 57584
 
Paullie: With regard to tech stocks, today I threw in the towel and went 100% cash in my trading, non-taxable account. I intend to stay in cash until Sept./Oct. or until there is a CLEAR sign that technology stocks have regained favor and upward momentum. I am not going to try to short the NASDAQ qqq's, pick up tech bargains, etc. I believe the tech selloff is a delayed reaction to the nearly 100% rise of the NASDAQ which occurred primarily from Oct. 1999 to March 1st, 2000. My sentiment can be summarized quite simply: "don't fight the tape".

Since I have substantial gains (100 to 400%) in many of the tech stocks in my taxable account, stocks which I try to hold for long-term (12 months), it makes little sense to give 40% of the profits away to short-term capital gains tax; I am simply holding until techs regain favor in the fall. Then, when they take off again, I can sell and take profit at a 20% rate. I AM selling selected stocks in this account that show unusual weakness to raise cash. Case in point: Global Crossing (GBLX) and Gemstar (GMST).

I am sure that there are very astute and gifted traders that will make money between now and Sept -- frankly, I am not one of them and I will play the "sure thing": holding cash and capitalizing on the tech bargains in Sept. and October for the inevitable sharp tech rebound.
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