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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed

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To: Defrocked who wrote (25075)	4/12/2000 11:45:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) of 42523

the WSJ article on CSCO is a classic, so good especially Ed Kerschner's comments that I have to save it for posterity. Message 13404773 It's hard to envision this leg down ending without CSCO going to it's 200 dma at 48. It does have some pretty good support from 63 to 67 but.... you know the seasonals on corn are much different during the 1990's, than from the mid 70's to 1990. However meaningful draught considerations obviously override any seasonal tendencies. John ---------------- March 30, 2000 7 Seasonal Analysis December CBOT Corn Seasonal YEAR ENTRY EXIT P&L PRICE PRICE $ 70 117.78 144.88 -1355 71 143.85 114.88 1449 72 128.23 137.00 -439 73 146.38 266.75 -6019 74 257.50 349.00 -4575 75 272.00 264.50 375 76 262.00 241.80 1010 77 267.25 223.45 2190 78 256.85 227.85 1450 79 262.15 273.30 -558 80 293.85 385.00 -4558 81 379.30 270.75 5428 82 292.30 238.45 2693 83 304.20 340.00 -1790 84 299.20 272.15 1353 85 267.10 239.60 1375 86 205.45 167.05 1920 87 176.40 187.20 -540 88 222.55 262.00 -1973 89 258.35 238.35 1000 ??????????????????? 90 254.95 222.10 1643 91 260.95 240.45 1025 92 263.10 215.95 2358 93 244.90 279.75 -1743 94 259.55 214.45 2255 95 261.25 326.25 -3250 96 320.20 270.95 2463 97 291.40 272.80 930 98 274.30 218.10 2810 99 246.75 193.10 2683 The results depicted above are based on an average of the weekly price during the weeks of entry and exit. Simulation would put this year?s entry during the week of April 3-7 and exit during the week of November 20-24. Traditionally, corn prices tend to establish a high during June, then decline into harvest. However, in the last decade, a shift in behavior has developed. In the 1990s, the seasonal peak tended to occur in the March?April period. These two patterns may be seen on the accompanying chart. The table presents all years since 1970 with the last decade below the horizontal line. In the latter timeframe, the average gain per contract would have been $2,020 in eight of the ten winning years. In the two remaining years, the average loss per contract would have been $2,497. December CBOT Corn Seasonal Analysis

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