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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (13134)4/12/2000 4:40:00 PM
From: Allan Harris  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
"There is one thing that I wouldn't want to forget at this point in the market cycles discussions. Presidential election years (as one year of the four year cycle), begins with a decline to a low at the end of the first quarter (March, which we've just seen) and there after, rises to a peak at year end. This cycle has been researched by Robert Merrill and the stand out year, in my mind, was 1980 when we had a Market drop and panic sell -off much like this year's. I remember a loop afterwards and then a blastoff beginning in late April with a rising bull mkt. 'til year end (punctuated with a 2 or 3 week sell off in July -August). Anyway, I would be very surprised to see the cycle prediction of a decline to October this year, again. Three years in a row, I think not! and please remember the October bottoms in '78 and '79 (every bit as frightening at '98 and '99) which led to that 1980 presidential year pattern."

ttheory.com

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