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Technology Stocks : Seac - Seachange New IPO
SEAC 3.350+1.8%Oct 22 10:15 AM EST
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To: RMP who wrote (25)5/5/1997 9:11:00 PM
From: answer man   of 431
 
Does Individual Investor have a home page or any way I can read that article on the web? As for SEAC, few things:

1. The lock-up period for insiders after the ipo expired today so we may see some weakness over the next week or so.

2. Earnings estimates of .53 was before this past quarters beat estimates by two cents. My opinion is that seac will earn about .60 for the year. That gives it a p/e of about 30. Next year I see about .90 cents. Once we start pricing on 1998 earnings (which assume analysts will be .80 - i.e., seac will beat estimates to acheive my .90) we should price around 30 times 1998 earnings to about 25 range. Hopefully, during some euphoria phase we overshoot 25 and hit 30 range. That's my hope and then I sell. Remember, this stock still has a market cap of about $250 million (I think). So this isn't a $1 billion company.

3. TCI is cutting expenses but my understanding is that mostly means they are focusing on thier core businesses which means seac will benefit because it is definitely part of tci's core business. Although the relationship between tci and seac is definitely important, I don't see much risk from a generic slowdown in spending from tci which would hurt seac.

4. The way to make money in seac is try and pick it up around 15 if it does sell off. At that level if it hits 25 your making a serious return. Keep an eye on it - it could hit 15-16 in the next week or so.

Later.
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