GV, John, Harry & Thread, RE: "So is Intel overvalued, fairly valued?"
Hi,
The market still looks a bit high to me when compared to previous years, yet, from the perspective of future earnings, consider:
- a stock-split would show management's confidence in the price (this was mentioned on SI),
- Craig Barrett's comments in an article posted on SI which said (off the top of my head) that demand will be good (or high? don't recall exactly) in 2000 and 2001. Now this is the interesting part: when has Intel ever (in the past 5 years) discussed their future demand as far out as > 1 year? Is this a first?
- AMD's good earnings is one indicator on the semi industry
- Japan & Asia's recovery
etc.
Things look good for a LT investor, although, the overall market may be a bit warm when compared to a few years ago.
Harry, on your analysis, what do you conclude is a reasonable price if Intel achieves a growth rate of 35% in 2000, followed by say 35% in 2001? Then 25% in 2002, then 20% 2003? Just wild guesses here, but I bet Intel will be above 20% growth in 2000. I think the analysts could be wrong on their estimates for 2000, given Craig Barrett's recent comments in that article.
Historical net income growth rates:
99 21% 98 -13% 97 35% 96 45% 95 56% 94 -.3% 93 115% 92 30% 91
(I haven't verified the figures above)
Does anyone know where Paul is?
Amy J |
