SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 681.89+0.3%Oct 31 5:00 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: el paradisio who wrote (45898)4/13/2000 1:23:00 AM
From: Andy H  Read Replies (8) of 99985
 
Just read a commentator who said the 20% NAZ decline after an 87.7% runup from October 99 lows was just "pennies". I would disagree. Since the decline is more like 25%, over 50% of the entire move has been retraced already.

Assuming the October to March move was an impulse Elliot Wave and the current decline is of equal degree, we can compute some support levels:

Using closing prices of 5048 on March 10 and 2688 on October 19, we get a move of 2360 pts. A 61.8% retracement is about 1458 pts yielding a target of 3590. The current decline is already over 26% down from the intraday high of 5136. A 30% decline (chosen only as the next round number decline possibility) from 5136 is 3595. Thus, 3600 could be the level to reverse the decline after everybody gives up as we break 3650 and gets whipsawed. Perhaps a few more days of margin selling will get us to that point where some stable money will reenter.

Below 3600, I tend to agree that there is no particular support level. A 38.2% decline from 5136 is way down at 3174 and would represent quite a decline even by historical standards. Given the strong economy and my belief that inflation will not return to any degree close to the 70s, I doubt any decline will make it there, or stay there for more than a few days before rallying strongly. I do not buy any parallels to the 73-74 or to Japan. All major bears were accompanied by fairly severe economic problems which I don't see here.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News