George Gilder Lecture 4/12/00
Tonight I attended a Merrill Lynch sponsored lecture by Gilder. These are some notes I took. Warning: I am not a tech guy and only barely familiar with Gilder. These notes are from his lecture and the Q&A afterwords.
Interesting M/L comment: Investments between Nov. 1st and Easter have double the return compared to the other months, based on data over the last 15 years.
Gilders List of Companies: he never removes a company. Buy these companies on dips.
Phobian(sp?) A company started by a friend of his, a previous tech pioneer. Makes unbelievable "photo's". Check out at Phobia.net. 49% owned by Nat'l Semi.
Iridium--Doomed from the start. Voice only capabilities. Infrastructure in space and not on the ground.
GSTRF--"it will succeed". Now handsets too costly but will come down. Can be upgraded for data. Car kits coming out.
Vignette--mentioned this software company(recently met with them). Software allows companies to publish on the net without having to hire their own programmers.
AT&T IPO--"A DOG". I'm sure this thrilled M/L since I think they are one of the IPO underwriters. They have an "orphan system"(TDMA). They aren't even GSM. He ridiculed AT&T. Said they paid 25 mil from McCaw and now want you to believe its worth 75 million.
TeraBeam--private company he likes but bothered by the Lucent involvement. "Lucents role usurps the role of the good guys".
GBLX--likes the company. Perfect strategy for the internet,ie., overseas cable. CONCERNED that the company may be sold in that they may be "dressing it up for the Kill".
Inktomi-- superb company but being challenged by others. High Price.
JDSU-- Terrific Company
QUALCOMM-- His Baby(my comment). Loves the company but must continue to execute. "so far their lead is increasing". He expects "lots of good news to come".
Superconductor Technologies-- I asked him about this topic. FYI, players are SCON,CDTS and ISCO. He has invested in this technology. He likes it but risky until this technology has been accepted. My comment--many units already sold and in place. He thinks the best usage will be with 3G, CDMA, and beyond 3G(he may have mentioned 5G(?).
Various spacey concepts-- Limitations on the speed of light. Also called TeraBeam- "a revolutionary technology". "Everything will be done to save time", now we waste time, TV, waiting for voice messages, etc. "we just passed through the computer age", component prices came down but now there is no "dynamic delta" in computers.
Talked about BANDWIDTH. There is/will be bandwidth abundance which leads to "storage". Likes a company called Mirror Image. Likes Net Appliance but "has some concerns so wants to meet with them to clarify a few things". The new thing will be STOREWIDTH.
ATML-- likes the company.
Optical--will happen very fast
Okay, thats it. I realize he may have said all of this before but I'm just recapping what he said tonight.
Goodnight...Don |
