your timing on the move to cash in your retirement accounts was very very good
Scott, nice of you to say so -- but probably more fortuitous than anything else; in the interests of full disclosure, I must acknowledge that my timing was not as adroit on taxable accounts!:)
Actually, if you have followed my posts over the years, you will know that I have implemented this type of shift into cash, at least once a year. Invariably, when I have done so, it has been early -- and I have left some money on the table. I really did not expect this magnitude of decline at this juncture -- else, I would have been more aggressive with portfolio protection on the taxable accounts.
Which brings me to my real question......when are you going to move that cash back into the market and will you be going into the tech stocks?
I have moved about 20% of retirement funds into the market so far -- and I will move an additional 20-30% today. I am reluctant to move anymore than that right now because I really would like to see outright capitulation as a mark of a bottom. The ideal scenario for me, would be a decline of another 300-400 points on the NAZ -- an intra-day decline below the 200 dma -- which should bring about capitulation and thereafter a recovery. Now none of this may come to pass and perhaps we will rocket up from here -- and if so, I will end up entering at higher prices. I am inclined to believe that any rally here will be short-lived -- but there are some significant cycle lows in May which should represent a better opportunity for a bottom.
Yes, most of the funds will be invested in technology -- G&K stocks -- with a small component in some very beaten down sectors.
Someone asked me in a pm, why I follow this thread since I am not a true gg. I follow the thread because it is really one of the best threads on SI with some outstanding contributors. But all markets and stocks experience excesses whether on the upside and downside -- and just as I would seek to take advantage by buying stocks when there are excesses to the downside by the same token, I will not hesitate to take money off the table when there are excesses to the upside. There are risks in both instances --since just as excesses to the downside can become even pronounced, similarly excesses to the upside can become very exaggerated. If the end result, is that I leave some money on the table by exiting early, then so be it!
I think that we have all been spoilt by this bull-market and some of the participants have expectations of returns that are just not sustainable on a long term basis - my goals are aggressive but relatively modest.
Remember pigs get fat -- and hogs get slaughtered. |
