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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop
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To: Voltaire who wrote (12647)4/13/2000 9:21:00 AM
From: limtex  Read Replies (3) of 35685
 
Vol -Did you read Cramers latest. He is the gloomiest I've ever seen.

Well I must admit that I never thought that I would experience a 1929 style crash but it looks like we've got a big one just beginning.

Well I suppose all those who have been predicting this are now happy at least for the moment. All those who have contributed to breaking the back of the market may not be quite so pleased when the other consequences of their so often expressed opinions come about. How about this little lot:-

1. Sell in May and go away. Great old saying and over thelast fwe years very accurate. For instance what happens now in a week or so's time and earnings season is over? Do you think the buyer will return or not? Would you go back in or not?

2. Now that sentiment is lets say a little dampened do you think that companies are going to do better or worse in the next quarter? Do you think Mr Greenspan and Mr Mayer are going to be satisfied now and resist further rate rises or not? My guess is that companies are not going to do quite so well in the June quarter.

Now what do you think that will do to the market?

There is nothing that I can see in the way of good news till at least October this year, if then.

CSCO P/E is 170. Is that reassonable in this climate? Would a P/E of lets say 75 be excelent for CSCO in this market?

QCOM P/E is over 200. Reasonable in this market? Wouldn't a P/E of lets say 90 be fantastic even for a company with the Q's prospects?

3. Now for Mr Klein. Did you see his interview on the Hill yesterday? He seems to me to be determined to break MSFT. All his language feel to me like he is out to get them. I guess we should be thankfull to Mr Klein since the case has held down the MSFT stock itself and so holders haven't suffered as badly as other stocks but the action has definately had an effect on the market in general.

Sorry to be gloomy but looks to me like someone opened Pandoras box and the troulbe has just begun.

I'll post this over on the Porch and see if there is anyone over there with some encouragement.... anything would do.

Best regards,

Sauve qui peut,

L
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