Forgot to post re put/calls. I've kept track of put call ratio for the last 15 years or so. Unfortunately, I did not keep a separate equity PC until recently. Due to the tremendous decline in index option volume, which is much more weighted to puts than equity options, absolute comparisons with past lows will not work so nicely as did until 1999. For the record yesterday's equity ratio of about .5 was the highest since late October, but far short of the climax reading in mid-October.
I have found the IBD put call premium ratio to be the best single indicator of market bottoms. Yesterday's reading was the second lowest ever (.16) vs. .13 on August 31, 1998.
Similar to the 8/31/98 reading, it was not accompanied by a climactic PC volume ratio. Lately we have had several readings in the low to mid .20s, which I have never seen in 10 years for that indicator. Interesting to see how this plays out. In 1998, the volume ratio gave a buy signal on October 8, 1998 putting the last indicator in place for the low. Yesterday didn't feel like a low, but we are only a record volume turnaround day away, whenever it comes <ggg>.
Perhaps we are a couple of months away in time from the next upleg, though like last fall, it could come from a higher level. Remember the August 99 low on the NAZ was about 200 pts (8%) lower than the October 99 low. |
