Here is Carpino's thinking as of last night:
Sorry I can't post his charts:
Subject:
C-BANDS ON NASDAQ 4-12-2000
Date:
Wed, 12 Apr 2000 22:22:44 -0500
From:
"CHUCK CARPINO" <chuckcarpino@msn.com>
To:
"Chuck Carpino" <chuckcarpino@email.msn.com>
C-BANDS ON NASDAQ
The first chart is the COMPQ. Notice there was a low at the first two bands
on 3-16 and 4-4 respectively. Today, the previous low on 4-4 at the band was
penetrated,so I have to assume it isn't over for the NASDAQ. The next C-band
of the current volatility is at the 3/1X4 at 3413. If price goes that far,
and looks like it wants to do that,I would expect some support formation of
a low near that point should price get there. THERE IS DOUBLE SUPPORT HERE.
A 4/1X3 from the lower top on 4-10 also comes in at 3400. Unless price gaps
thru those levels on an open,I think you will see a low of some sort
there,IMO.
I find it hard to imagine the 4/1 band off the 3-10 top getting touched.
That would be a disaster,a crash.
There have been two moves down since the top on 3-10 and the market is in
the third wave.
Time wise, it's been 33 days since the high on 3-10. There is a cycle low on
the 14th at the 35 day mark.(another time count) Cross your fingers and hope
the next low is it until a rally can get prices back up before another down
cycle hits. The best I can hope for is a decent rally soon so that the next
low at the end of April
makes a double low.
The INDU put in a high today, the 12th,in the window where a high was due.
The weakest index, NASDAQ put a top in at the first hour on the 10th-ahead
of the stock.You have to realize that makes sense. Weak stocks or indexes
top sooner if in a weaker position. The stronger 100 stock big-cap NDX did
not top until 3-24. The larger NASDAQ topped sooner on 3-10.
There have been no rules to go by for four-five months now concerning
NASDAQ. All the stocks are going down,but the best of the bunch should
recover over the long-term. If you hold highly speculative stocks you were
in big trouble in just a few days from the top. Actually, the daily ranges
on those stocks are so wide,
you are probably used to it. The problem is, this time they aren't bouncing.
The trend is away from serious risk. Please take note.That was probably a
peak in speculation on the 10th.The SPX and INDU are better off as far as
the price structure is concerned relative to the NASDAQ.
The second chart is of the NDX. It shows the bands off each top. 3160 to
3265 is a range that includes two bands. The third chart is the CASH SPX
with C-Bands off the initial top and the latest high. One has to run them
off both.
CC |
