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Pastimes : The Big Tex House of Coin
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To: BigTex who wrote (13295)4/13/2000 2:40:00 PM
From: Robert B.  Read Replies (3) of 19297
 
the swingtrading dude's opinion 4/12/2000

The Stock Market Report - swingtradingonline.com

This is it. The market has a support line between
3700-3760. It appears that tomorrow we will touch this.
The question is what happens afterwards. There are several
scenarios for tomorrow:

1)Market gaps down and we bounce off this key support
level. Rally back up, although I doubt rally will be as strong
as the one last week.

2)Market opens mixed or higher and than falls through this
support and crashes. Probably goes to 3200-3500. We
have another bottom.

3)Market doesn?t do much of anything, but closes slightly
below 3700. This is worst scenario because it means that
we?ll probably have days of selling ahead of us.

If I was a betting man than I?d say we are going to go close
below 3700 and there is a 25% chance of a serious market
crash within a week. Maybe tomorrow. This is not a time
to start buying stock because you think it might be a
bottom. Don?t believe it until you see a climax sell off or
the market rallies for a few days on high volume. Higher
than the last rally.

That said I?m NOT a betting man and I CANNOT predict
the market. I hope I am wrong. Yes, I have short
positions, but I will set stops on them tomorrow and even if
the market does rally I will still lock in a good profit in
them. You have to be prepared for any scenario.

I don?t want to scare anyone. Just hope people listened to
my advice from this weekend: ?now is a time to take
conservative positions, backed up with defensive positions,
until the market completes a consolidation phase.?

I currently have short positions in PCLN, REGN, KEYN,
and options in RHAT. I do not plan on closing these
positions until I see a panic sell off. That is usually an
indication of a bottom.

Most downtrends finally end with a climax of high volume
selling. What happens is the last weak hands have to dump
the stock before stronger hands come in and take hold of
the stock. This hasn?t happened yet and is what I?m looking
for to believe we have hit a true bottom.

The best thing that could happen is if the panic selling happens right on
the open tomorrow and we rally from there. If that happens I'll look to
get in a hot stock - one that tends to go up a lot when the NASDAQ rallies
- on the rally. Perhaps BVSN, ELON, or NTRO.

Tomorrow will be a very interesting day. It will be a day of
reckoning for the NASDAQ. Will it bounce or blowup. I hope it bounces
and makes me eat my words. Whatever happens it will be high drama and fun
to watch.
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