Limtex - The problem is not enough realistic DD on so many of these high-flyers. Overall, the COMPX may be fairly valued right about here, and to some degree some stocks may be good buys. But there is still more air to be let out of quite a few of these tires, and that surely could drag the COMPX down further.
On the bright side, margin debt is no doubt down, and a lot of crap is being culled out of the IPO waiting lines right now. On the not so bright side, markets typically overreact in both directions and there sure doesn't seem to be any kind of pent up buying sentiment.
Witness AMD with blow-out earnings and today it closed down. SUNW had fantastic earnings today and barely budged in after hours.
If the Q comes in with "expected" or "one penny above", and there's no guidance to a boomer spring quarter, and we have the same market sentiment, then we'll get whacked back to 110 just like in January.
The put/call ratio and VIX are getting way up there (today .71 and 33.95 respectively) but not so compelling we should all mortgage our houses and buy everything tomorrow.
There's still a lot of call option open interest (from 31,433K on 3/10 NAZ high to 36,062K close today) and I haven't done enough digging to figure out how much of this will evaporate Thursday next. I think a lot of margin players moved into calls to hold onto their broken positions until as long as possible.
So it doesn't quite look like a screaming buy situation yet.
Since everybody and his brother is waiting for some massive selling Armageddon day in order to immediately thereafter begin buying, it may be we just exhibit classic bear market price action over a longer period, rather than some cataclysm. "Ameritrade Stuart" probably has a relatively short attention span and if his May calls expire worthless, may then be tap-out time for that crowd. The real concern is if Mr. and Mrs. America start swapping out of their FIDO, Janus etc. tech funds into money markets. But I don't think that Main Street behaves in a fell swoop fashion sufficient to trigger Armageddon, when the trader folk seem to be so much anticipating it.
All just my opinion FWIW.
P.S. Joey P. is out on his yacht in the Caribbean on a three-week vacation. I always thought the guy was such a Johnny one-note that CNBC only kept him around for comic relief. |
