Thanks for your astute views, Protege. You make a strong case. I simply disagree. I believe the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 will dip below the 200DMA before the end of the summer. . .and possibly within a few weeks. And rather than a hard bounce that leads to a renewed tech rally. . .I believe we will see a soft bounce that leads to a summer bear on low volume.
And contrary to popular belief, I don't believe that many of the highs that were hit this year by some techs, will be hit next year. That assumption could be a costly one to many loving parents wanting this years babies to be next years high fliers. . .it just doesn't work that way. . . which is why I always say that when the markets tank. . . we go shopping only for the BEST-OF-THE-BEST.
Look at RNWK. It was one of the hottest stocks of early 1999. Right now it is near the low hit last summer. . . and half what it was in April, 1999. . .and one-third its price of this past February. . . how would you play this?
Frankly, I don't think it will see $90 anytime again in 2000. Those in love, may learn a hard lesson.
I also believe that this is the year when QCOM and CSCO are upset. If you recall, I don't believe that wireless technology is going to stand still to allow QCOM all the marbles. Nokia, Ericsson, IDC and Orange are all hot on the trail of some major new developments in wireless technology. . .and there ARE better protocols than CDMA.
QCOM relies on the ASSUMPTION that CDMA will be the accepted standardized protocol in the USA for many years to come. To me, that is an apple cart that could be upset by a couple of press releases about alliances between, say Motorola and Nokia. . . or even Microsoft and IDC. . .or PALM and Ericsson. . . using a hot new competing protocol. And don't count Sony out of the wireless sector. . . they have a knack for showing up a bit late with mind-blowing technology that sets everyone back on their heels.
CORRECTION: For the record. . . it appears on my post #23743, I believe I made a typo. QCOM should not have been called to 65. . . but rather 100. . .sorry. . .65 isn't what I have in my notes. But there is clearly support at 100.
On Cisco, I have been saying for some time that I believe that CSCO's cart will be upset by developments in the "all-optical" networking. . . spearheaded by Lucent, Agilent, LightPath, JDS Uniphase/ETEK/OCLI and others. However, that premise assumes that Cisco will sit on its hands. . . a few choice acquisitions by Cisco could put them squarely back into the drivers seat on routers. But they had better act soon, IMO.
If a major ISP dumps Cisco servers for all-optical servers from another manufacturer, I do believe we could see low 40's on the stock. And in making that call, I am implying that I believe this is what will come down this year. However, as I've said. . .if Cisco acts and gets themselves an all-optical router, then I'll be the first one there to buy their stock all the way back to 80.
Thanks again for your opposing views, Protege. They are always appreciated and welcome.
Rande Is |
