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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop

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To: alias who wrote (12919)	4/13/2000 10:01:00 PM
From: abstract	Read Replies (6) of 35685

I can remember a book from the late 60's titled: "The True Believers." It was written by Eric Hoffer. I seem to remember that he was not an intellectual and was probably a common laborer. But he was also a very perceptive observer of human nature. (I am really stretching some brain cells to recall any of this stuff.) His ideas were certainly the precursor of today's momentum traders. The gist of the book was that people hate to be wrong. It was more about politics and sociology )Voltaire's psychology) than economics or investing, but illustrated how a presidential candidate like Edmund Muskie could be leading (or at least doing well) in the polls (like tech stocks) and then the newspapers (the houses) publish a picture of him crying in the face of adversity, and nobody wants to support him anymore. Now I suppose there are two ways to look at this: the big picture or the little one. Muskie did not have enough moxie or time to get his act together and he faded (that would be the small picture). And this is what we are confronting today - the small picture. The houses rectifying their inventory, creating their own mythology and methodology. In my business and I guess many others, appearances are more important than reality (but over time reality always wins). The houses have been crying wolf for so long that the apparition of a wolf has appeared, but that doesn't mean that there is a wolf - it means people are afraid of the wolf. Go back to the big picture - return to the True Believers - Hoffer's True Believers - the proselytised. They are not leaders. They are followers. (Ah - the pleasures of raising children.) Here ya go - the King's New Clothes - that would be the Dow - naked as a jay bird and a fair amount of the populace trumpeting his return. Ha - nothing has changed - there is no new paradigm. There is a new economy even though it is no longer new. Can everyone see reality? Hell no. Are some of us scared. Sure. Will rational minds prevail? Of course. Right away? Yes and no. Is the economy healthy? Is it growing solidly? Yes. Has anything changed intrinsically since last month or last quarter or last year? Nope. Ask yourself if the last "X" years are a fallacy and this week's market is "the truth." Pick which one resonates. Go with it. I have learned a lot from reading this thread. People here are warm and wonderful and smart. Some are chronically optimistic. Some are perpetually afraid. It has been marvelous for me to have my idiosyncratic thoughts balanced by the quantifiable opinions expressed here. I owe all of you thanks, because without your aggregate wisdom I would not have had the courage to hear my inner voice and I would have bailed - but instead I have not sold a share of stock this year and bought more yesterday. Thank you, Paul PS: It is also my guess that for every person who posts here at least once a week there are 253 who read those words and never post. I promise you that since January 1 I have read every single post on this thread. Sometimes it takes some courage to express oneself in a public forum. Damn - that's a lot of pent up words !

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