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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (46123)	4/13/2000 11:37:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Terry, that's one of the many pitfalls...the other being that once a secular bull market ends, it usually does so at extremes of valuation and a period of severe underperformance follows in its wake...often a rather tiresomely long one. that at least is the historic experience. what proponents of the this time it's different school have as of yet failed to satisfactorily explain is how exactly it will be possible for the imbalances in the economy to continue to grow faster than the economy itself. the same thought applies of course to the more mundane stock market related question of how p/e's are supposed to continue to expand faster than earnings. at some point the figures involved simply become utterly nonsensical even in relation to the total economy's size. in short, economic cycles have likely not been repealed, and neither have bear markets... good night, hb

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