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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop
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To: Voltaire who wrote (13002)4/13/2000 11:50:00 PM
From: Triffin  Read Replies (1) of 35685
 
Voltaire ..

I'm with Clappy on this one ..
You've got nothing to prove ..

If you can honestly say that the 'play'
you are contemplating is one you would have
thought to do independant of what has to date
transpired in the market, then go for it ..
Just make sure you haven't reduced it to
"I'm right and the market is wrong" ..
Lest we forget, themarket is always right.
Our job as short term trader/investors is to
want what it wants; at least that's what one
needs to do if the objective is to consistently make $$$.
The correction to date in my opinion has more to
do with frightened retail/mutual fund type investors
who bought into technology late; are now seeing losses
and are redeeming shares; than with a smaller population
of short term/daytrader types with margin problems.

Its the flow of funds issue.
If you're running the XYZ tech fund and you have $30
million in net redemptions, you don't have a choice
but to sell. These are the same folks who bid the
techs to 200 - 600 PEs and 100 - 300 PSR not because they
wanted to or thought they were making prudent investments,
but because they were daily getting buried in money and they had to buy. Now we witness a reversal of this
process; and that is not to say that the market isn't
due for a bounce or short term rally wether it's engineered
by the 'houses' or a general short term over sold condition
doesn't really matter. Gauging the markets is a lot
like watching the tides and waves at the beach. When you
first get there you can observe wether the tide is high or
low or in between; to get the direction you have to
watch the waves as they run up the beach. After a little
while you will notice if the wave wash is migrating further
up the beach or wether they don't seem to run up quite as
far. Each of us has to decide if the tide is high or
low, which way it is presently going, and adjust our trading strategies accordingly.

Jim in CT ..
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