China's New Ideological Revolution
SUMMARY
Some of the directors of China's state-owned enterprises earn up to
200 times that of their workers, according to a National Statistics
Bureau (NSB) survey cited by the official Xinhua news agency on
April 13. While a CEO making more than his employees is not in
itself a particularly unusual occurrence, Beijing is now pointing
out the growing class disparity. This emphasis offers Beijing a new
tool in its largely unsuccessful campaign to rein in economic
corruption and mismanagement among government and business
officials - a controlled mass ideological movement.
ANALYSIS
China's National Statistics Bureau (NSB) has revealed a growing
wage disparity between State Owned Enterprise (SOE) executives and
employees. In a recent survey cited by the state-run Xinhua News
Agency on April 13, the NSB reported that in Sichuan Province, for
example, some SOE heads earn 200 times that of the workers. The
discrepancies, according to the NSB, stem from recent changes in
salary allocation implemented as part of reforms in these
enterprises.
That a CEO of a major industry earns more than the employees is not
in itself a particularly astonishing fact. However, amid a wide-
ranging campaign to crack down on mismanagement and corruption, and
divisions in Beijing over the effectiveness and extent of economic
reform programs, the survey presents a more troubling message.
Beijing is signaling that China's economic reforms have undermined
the ideals of the Communist Party, created a class system - and
threaten to shake the very foundations of the nation.
China's leadership has long struggled over the extent and
consequences of the economic opening and reform process. Beijing
thus took a cautious approach to its experimentation with a
socialist market economy. In particular, it kept a close eye on the
political and social fallout from Moscow's rapid economic opening,
moderating the pace of China's reforms in response.
Despite the care taken to avoid upheaval, China now faces a similar
threat. The liberalization of central government control,
inefficient laws and regulations, and an increased ability to deal
directly with foreign businesses allowed mismanagement and
corruption to flourish while Party control from the center waned.
The result was the formation of regional and local government,
military and business officials creating their own power bases,
with their interests tied more directly to their foreign economic
links than to the party or Beijing.
Under a state-run economy, inefficiencies could be overlooked in
the name of national unity and stability. However, the adoption of
a nominal free market system triggered massive layoffs and revealed
the inability of many SOEs to pay wages or pensions, either through
inefficiencies, mismanagement or blatant corruption. The ultimate
result is a loss of control by Beijing over the regions -
threatening the integrity of the unified nation - and growing ranks
of disgruntled unpaid and unemployed.
Beijing has launched a massive campaign to crack down on corruption
in an effort to maintain control over the nation. However,
threatening the livelihood of the rich elite is difficult to do
without triggering the very fracturing of the nation Beijing is
seeking to prevent. They represent strong, independent-minded
forces - distant from Beijing and capable of resistance or
retaliation.
While Beijing has made examples of high-level officials recently in
its attempt to quell corruption, the problem remains too great to
tackle. These regional and local leaders retain the ability, and
potentially the desire, to launch a counter-campaign against
Beijing. However, by raising the class-consciousness of the masses
- and thus turning every Chinese worker into an ally - Beijing is
preparing a tool of last resort to regain central control.
Pointing out the discrepancies in wages between SOE CEOs and the
common workers is just one step in a larger move to lay the
groundwork for a new mass ideological crusade. Chinese President
Jiang Zemin, in a January speech on Party discipline reprinted by
Xinhua April 1, pointed out the "intense strategic plot by the
U.S.-led Western countries to 'Westernize' and 'split up' China,"
which involved the use of "their political viewpoints, ideology,
and lifestyles to influence [China]."
Further, Jiang warned that a failure to manage the Communist Party
in the face of expanding the socialist market economy presented the
danger of "losing the party and the country!" Jiang stated
strongly, "We must never follow the bourgeois democratic model of
the West, for if we do chaos in China will be inevitable."
Jiang's January warning has been followed with calls by other top
officials to focus on Party building and education. In addition,
Beijing has begun dismissing liberal academics and media editors
from state-related institutions, including the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences.
Beijing's moves may signal a new phase in the prevention of social
and political collapse in China. Beijing is losing control of the
regions to local leaders. Deng Xiaoping's economic opening is
failing in the eyes of Beijing, causing strain on the political and
social system. Jiang is preparing to try a more traditional method
of Chinese leadership, the ideological crusading style of Mao
Zedong.
Beijing may be preparing to launch a new ideological revolution by
playing on the existing dissatisfaction among workers - laid off or
unpaid - who watch business leaders and local politicians grow
rich. While Beijing is not looking for a true revolution, which
would throw the entire country further into chaos, raising the
support of the masses engulfs the regional elite, rendering
resistance and separatism impossible.
Jiang may once again be preparing to don his Mao suit of Oct. 1,
calling on the masses to support the Party center in cleaning out
the "bourgeois" influence of Western ideology and lifestyle that
has tainted the Communist utopia of China.
(c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. stratfor.com
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