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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 220.66+1.6%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Randy Ellingson who wrote (100503)4/14/2000 1:25:00 AM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
There is nothing wrong with the economy except perhaps the distorting influence of hyper inflated tech stock market;

New think: Valuations should be based on new metrics because old ones can't be measured. Page hits v. sales. user registrations v. profits. Salaries and bonuses of analysts v. reasonable guidance.

Conventional financing for operations and talent won't work . . . so float companies with "new economy" stock valuations.

Analyze sales based on the fast growth dynamic of the Internet but evaluate margins based on the best metrics for the less fluid old world economy.

The growth story hasn't been undone but some whisper of reality has finally overcome the roar. Now there is some acknowledgement that the Internet is a perfect vehicle for squeezing down profits and creating a competitive environment in which only the leanest and meanest will survive.

Amazon is a good company in terms of developing sales. If they show that they can move toward profitability they may even be worth a few bucks. Still hard to tell how much.

This market has done a lot of technical damage that it can go down much further. We'll probably see a rebound before long but some think not until we see an even sharper sell off similar in effect to '87. Perhaps there is still too much optimism left and not enough shaking out of the tree. Longer term I think things will be fine as the "new economy" rolls out to the old world and becomes ubiquitous.
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