Last May Hemant we were higher on DOW, in last one year we have been seeing high of near 11900 and low of 9600 around, that gives me a central plank of 10600, we have made a new high and than a low at 9700 in March, seeing a rebound from that point to 11250 and inability to take that point once again, however individual constituents of DOW promise greener pautures as far the future earnings are concerned, the DOW volatility is compounded by the addition of MSFT and other techs too, if I look at the total earnings of DOW components considering DIW 30 stocks at one given time as one stock and look at 1998 1999 and anticipated 2000 eanrings and if I see a trend of a 10-15% growth in these earnings with benign inflation and low interest rate environment and equity risk premium of say 2.5% over 30 years money we will still see that DOW has the potential to climb, as the earnings have not been properly discounted. I think that probability of DOW at 8000 will materialise if we have global financial crisis or slow down or inflation comes back like ealry 80's we can be even lower but hte chnaces are slight..
Let me admit on onset that my views are technically weak, I trade markets off big picture, so TA i do is crude, it has helped so far may be it owrks but I have seen that I have done few good years based on this super-imposition of broad picture on simple TA that does not have much of complexity, although undoubtedly my analysis is little complex but that is something not easy to determine future course without a crystal ball, we try and just see that the odds may be on our side, in gambling the guy with loaded dice wins, in our case we try to see that we have a loaded dice with our global view from where we sit, I am so honored by you and impressed with your academic qualifications.. I think I ahve talked to you once beofre.. if i am right.. Love nad best regards as always.. |
