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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.640-0.4%Nov 18 3:59 PM EST
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To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (4172)4/14/2000 11:44:00 AM
From: Terrapin  Read Replies (1) of 34857
 
Hi A.L.,

"Maurice - I agree with you 100% on network effects. So does NOK, which is why it is now pushing W-CDMA so hard as the 3G migration for the GSM crowd.

I fear that some of our QCOM friends ignore this stuff and cling to the better mousetrap theory of alpha primacy. (There's a mixed metaphor!)"

I am inclined to think that a corollary of the network effect is that nobody will have to push W-CDMA very hard. If we can agree on a few points:

1) The current 'network' is predominantly GSM. [I think most will agree with this one; remember I am not talking about growth rates but real subscriber numbers in actual, worldwide, working networks.]

2) The most cost effective upgrade of GSM is to W-CDMA. [This will probably provoke the most discussion. I certainly do not know the answer and I imagine the equation is different for each network provider.]

3) A network provider will evaluate a technology based on cost of implementation and potential for future return on that investment and NOT simply on the 'best' technology. [The distinction here may be slight but suffice it to say the very 'best' technology may not provide a return that is significantly larger than the competing technology to justify the potential premium that is often associated with 'best' technologies.]

Just some thoughts.

And don't worry about the mixed metaphor; as far as I know mice still have alpha males.

Terrapin
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