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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.730-0.7%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (4177)4/14/2000 12:38:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (1) of 34857
 
I just hope that the handset sales growth can top 50% year-on-year. And that the network sales growth stays above 25%. It's probably the margins that will get the most attention. 23% should be doable for the phones - network situation is hairier, because R&D costs are zooming as the new mobile internet standards start arriving.

Upside surprise has to come from the phone unit - the new GPRS and DSL deals don't show up in the network numbers yet. Motorola's weak quarter leaves a slight chance for Nokia to hit 60%-plus handset sales growth, though that's unlikely. If Mot had shown strong phone sales growth, that would have meant that Nokia can't post a major surprise.

Every percentage point of phone sales growth above 40% or so has to be torn from the hides of competing manufacturers. That's why I can't figure out why weak phone sales of the competition can be interpreted as a negative for Nokia. Nokia has a lot more leverage with component suppliers than Motorola - I doubt that Motorola's component problems can be generalized.

Nokia had a comparatively stale phone range during the first quarter of 1999 - I expect that the new models will keep the margins firm during this quarter. There's this tiny possibility that 8850 and 8210 might push the handset margin north of 25%... I'm holding onto that fantasy to take me through this gory week.

Tero
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