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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Curbstone who wrote (22738)	4/14/2000 12:47:00 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) of 54805

AM Who does it benefit? It benefits the investor who is on the right side of the trend! The point I was trying to make in my previous post is that unless there is a "soft landing" the economy will most likely suffer a recession. How bad will it be? That's anyone's guess, but for now you have a hawkish FED worried about inflationary pressures and they will continue to hike until they feel satisfied the overheating economy has sufficiently cooled. The problem is raising rates doesn't usually produce the "desired result" for at least 6 months and I believe that's why Greenspan has a history of overdoing it, because by the time they see the "evidence" they need (lagging indicators) the damage is already done. For example, big concern right now is housing, the FED will probably note that the string of hikes hasn't slowed mortgage demand. True, refi's are down, but incrementally raising rates has a perverse effect stimulating home purchases, since everybody's trying to get locked in before the next rate hike... I truly believe there are inflationary pressures out there, but they've been successfully "managed" by productivity gains, but just remember, how much more productivity can you squeeze out of your local UPS driver for example, to offset his rising wages and sign on bonus? Please take a look at the local help wanted ads under "drivers" to get an idea of the type of labor pressure we have right now. bp

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