While Greenspan lulls us to sleep with his soft gentle voice, well paced 4 syllable words and his lack of the use of a period. . . .I thought I'd tell you a little story.
You know how I am always looking out my window for ideas? Well, guess what has been peering back at me since yesterday afternoon? No, not my reflection. . . or a voyeur. . .or even a news reporter. . .
A male cardinal.
He sits in the tree staring at his reflection. In a similar way as we have been deep in reflection of late. At first, I thought he was thinking he saw a female in the window. . .and couldn't figure out why she wouldn't come with him to go make baby cardinals. Sort of like the way some of us could not figure out how our babies were dropping, when they were good companies.
And no matter how many times he flew into the window, he could not convince the imaginary bird to follow along. No matter how hard our wishful thinking tries to lift our babies, we cannot regain control of matters. . .as though there were an invisible force field, and tractor beam pulling us lower.
As much as I have walked up to the window to scare the cardinal. . .tapping on the window. . . shining a light into it. . . even opening it and yelling at him for being so stubborn, he persisted. . . bouncing his head off his own reflection. . .as if he knew better than I that something grand lie just beyond that force-field.
And as many times as I have been here calling the market tops and bottoms . . .giving warnings. . and trying to shine light where there is darkness. . . stubbornness has led to many headaches.
Suddenly, about 40 minutes ago, a female cardinal showed up in the same tree checking out what has been causing this obsessive behavior in her guy. Yup! He's already married. The male cardinal wasn't looking for a mate at all. He was challenging the male cardinal he saw in the reflection . . . as this breed is territorial by nature.
If you are stuck in a stock down here, my friends. . .you are either already married. . . or challenging the authority that set the glass force-field between you and your pot-of-gold.
And that is when it donned on me. I know these birds. That female is just as stubborn as her husband. Last year this time, she tried unsuccessfully for 3 days to make a birds nest in that very tree. The fork in the branches was just not shaped in such a way as to hold up her twigs. But she worked at it tirelessly.
And in the same manner, I have discovered that I am just as obsessed with catching a bounce play as many of you are with holding your babies. And this has caused me losses just the same. . .by insisting on buying too early. . . and hoping that the glass would just disappear and my pot-of-gold would be there waiting for me.
It turns out the cardinal couple is once again scouting out that tree for their spring nest. But the male is uncomfortable with seeing that "other" cardinal. . .and wants him gone first.
Yeah, they want to try their hand one more time at building that nest. So soon, after watching this obsessive male whacking against the window. . . I'll be watching his equally obsessive wife cardinal trying to get twigs to stay in that odd shaped fork.
And so, it seems that my sense of gambling on the trade has become more important than the preservation of capital. I know my twigs won't hold. But for some innate reason I keep on trying to make it work.
It is a funny little analogy. . . but there is one primary difference between us and our cardinal friends. . . . we are LOTS smarter. We can learn from our mistakes.
This has been a trying couple of weeks for those long-term investors and traders alike. All I ask is this. . . make certain that you have learned something from all this about trading. . .about investing. . about capital preservation. . . about fear and greed. . .about the way the markets work. . .about your own abilities and shortcomings. . . and about your own stubbornness or patience.
Use what you learn to make certain that the next time we come this way, you perform better than you did this time. . . in some way.
It might mean not bashing your head against the window. . . or insisting on winning against a foe that you can't even see. . . or bucking the trend. . . or insisting on trying to do what cannot be done. . .or ignoring the warning signs in the first place.
Next time, we'll all do even better. . . I only hope the cardinals figure it all out one day, too.
Rande Is |
