Realistically, if you are a long term investor sitting on substantial gains, even with what's happened so far you can't justify selling and taking the big tax hit. Will the market decline from here enough to justify losing 20% of your gains?
But -- I didn't really have an opportunity to buy into this market until late, and I'm a short-term investor anyway.
And, I never said "the market will crash", I just said that risk was high due to the NYSE and NASDAQ divergence (topic of many of my December posts) and that once all the December-February bonuses, pension distributions, etc. were pumped into the market, the risk would get higher (who would be left with money to buy with?). And I also mentioned our negative savings rate a number of times, etc.
I mean -- I'm not a "bear". I enjoyed a nice 30% gain in November and December, when I was fully invested. As I've said many times, the whole point of my methods is to avoid the dips. I'm extremely risk-averse, but I like a reliable 25-40 percent annual return. And I've found a way to do attain that safely...
But I know you're a long term investor. The big danger now is the economy, should we have a panic next week...
Kevin |
