This is just my view:
Let's suppose you are a fund manager.
You want (in fact are bound by law) to invest in stocks.
You want to look good next quarter.
Semiconductors and the like are perhaps the best sector.
It is crazy to invest without knowing how well a business is doing and hearing the CC. Example is MOT. Great report (up 144% from last year) but in the CC the company guided next quarter's earnings down.
If you look at the earnings calendar, you will see that most of the big movers report tue & wed of next week (QCOM, INTC, AMCC, CNXT, TQNT, BRCM, LU, ETC.). By Thursday morning of next week it is all over. We will have the figures on most of the big movers. No excuse not to buy.
Therefore, the time to place your bets would normally be Thursday of next week.
But this weeks crash may change all that.
1) With AMD, PMCS, SUNW, etc having reported we already have a good idea what is coming. Good reports and positive outlooks for the next quarter. Very few disagree with that.
2) The market is so oversold there is little risk in buying now.
3) If you wait to hear the good news you already know is coming, you will probably miss out on the upturn from the bottom of the market.
I think this bodes well for the early part of the week. The smart buyers will buy now at dirt-cheap prices just 48 hours before the reports come out. Those that wait for the midweek reports will be getting in after the upturn is already well underway.
Most of the money will be made coming off the bottom. Those that wait for the obvious will be in for a more gradual rise and will probably be kicking themselves because they waited too long. |
