I disagree. But Monday will be a walk on thin ice (thus I'm not long). I will go long, and hard (ooh!), sometime next week. Of course, during earnings season, my "longs" may even last a few days. One disadvantage for career shorts, especially in a plummeting market such as this, is that their probability of higher gains rapidly diminishes the more the market drops. What this also means is that if and when the market "bases" or travels sideways, shorts suffer along with the bulls. So, you think every company will go bankrupt Monday? Think, anyer, think. You've made money - and mazel tov to you. I admire your patience for having the ability to sit on your hands for eight years waiting for this moment, while the rest of us hop in and out making money. Zorro's sword? A simple stop limit will do.
I also doubt NASDAQ will ever "base" in the traditional sense, and I doubt you can predict when that base will start or end. I believe the Wall Street elephants have less control of the markets and the performance of the NASDAQ demonstrates this.
Many will pony up house and hide to load up on even more of the "value" plays very, very soon. There is value out there, anyer, more-so today than yesterday and the day before. Perhaps there will be even more shining "values" Monday evening. Such "value" discussions will become more relevant to those who paid a ridiculous premium for their pet inut stock and lost money. For us, it serves as more of a "rationalization" for a "better" trade, but I think most on this thread follow the trend.
Lastly, if you've kept your ear to the IBD ground, you should notice that many companies are reporting stellar earnings. The ones that aren't are having their lunches eaten by more aggressive competitors e.g. AMD vs. INTC... JNPR, JDSU vs. CSCO. NOK vs. MOT. It would be worse, of course, if every company was warning or lamenting about earnings but many aren't. Folks like you get all gung-ho about a short that succeeded, but I see it as another requisite technique to round out the trading skill-set.
The economy is still rockin' anyer. Daytraders and position traders such as Jenna, you, and I will continue to make money. End of story. I have plenty of cash on the sidelines buddy, and so do others. Lotsa cash.
Until then:
Taxes ...
Greenspan speaks...
People will mull over their losses...
Margin calls will force selling and/or immediate account infusions...
Options expiration ...
The political rant (skip if necessary)...
Gore ceding the election to the clown with a contrived, beatific, "sure-glad-to-be-a-Texan" grin? "My position is that I HAVE no position... and, ya gotta understand, that IS a position". Imagine when this guy is called upon to make a decision. The GOP blew it by shunning McCain (really liked the chap), which will now strengthen Gore's run. Don't get me wrong... Gore has his problems, but innate ignorance and inexperience are aren't among them (charm lacks, but is on the mend). The last thing voters want is a defense-heavy, lobby-prone schnook launching a new economic experiment (to the tune of an ill-conceived $450 billion tax cut... WHA?), tinkering with the economy, and getting "tough" with China (at the expense of my TSM). No one politician (note "politician") will or has created this bull market, nor will any one man restore it, once it turns bearish.
...and if Bush wins I will send you one share of the new, improved, and presumably friendlier MSFT. :-)
Scrumpy |
