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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (46337)	4/14/2000 8:30:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Michael, long time no see...thanks for the quick overview. let me add to your comments my belief (something i learned sometime in the late 80's <g>) that a true panic bottom probably requires extra-ordinarily high volume, about 3-4 times the volume considered 'normal' before the day the panic bottom is made. that means 6-8 billion shares on the Nasdaq, and about 4-5 billion on the NYSE. one other thing worth noting is that the Nasdaq chart continues to remind me of the Nikkei's chart before and during its collapse. in wave theory terms it looks fatally like we are in wave 3 of 1 down. which implies that a pretty violent wave 2 rally should soon commence, and be followed by an even more gut wrenching decline. a two stages crash, similar to the Nikkei's, if the relationship continues to hold. the main difference i can spot is that the NAZ bubble is approximately 2-3 times larger in valuation terms. note that i am a hobby e-waver, and that there are certainly bullish alternate counts available, and that my view may be just plain wrong... regards, hb

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