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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: Rande Is who wrote (23997)	4/14/2000 8:47:00 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) of 57584

Fearless predictions and comments: (but don't take my word for it) The bottom was Dow down 700. About a half hour before close today. Panic to get out before the weekend and have enough cash to survive did it. Modest little rally at day's end. The stocks I bought when the Dow was down 700 will prove to be profitable buys (though they took iron balls considering I bought them on margin). COMS at 40, CMGI at 52, LOR at 7 3/4. Though almost any buys were incredible then. The market media machine and every market powerhouse all the way up to Clinton will have to start saying soothing things now. The entire world economy depends on it, as does Gore's chances and everyone's futures. Shorts will cover - huge huge huge. Bargain-hunters will dive in and snap up cheap shares. Just like every other day-after crash day we've experienced there will be a retracement of magnitude. If it wasn't tax day I'd say 50% for sure. But at least 30%. In any case a monster rally will probably take place, at least spread out over the next week. But maybe all at once if the right fuse it lit. Good earnings will remind everyone that things aren't so bad. IBM has 14 billion guaranteed revenue a year. Just an example. Excellent price now. If the Alta Vista IPO comes out (and I hope it does because I bought more CMGI today)then this will remind people that the glass isn't necessarily half empty. CMGI just fell 70%. There comes a point where the market has to say "no more". Big players who pulled out early like Goldman Sachs will be loading up. Who are their best friends in DC? Clinton administration. All the biggest powers will be behind a rebound. There will be selling into rallies but only by those who are desperate for the cash. Once we're past Monday things will get a little better. There will be some scared off or broke now who will not return to the market anytime soon. But others may enter from safe havens for the first time. MSFT at $75? Why not? Sounds like a safe bet. How about COMS at PE 16? Pilots are everywhere now. Arab Prince just bought 400 mill CPQ. He knows something many don't, that the computer business is rebounding nicely. The internet will not disappear, though some weak e-commerce companies will. Some International money will go into big US stocks, much of it into big name techs. There will be takeovers and consolidation with stock prices this low. Brokerage stocks will recover because nomatter what they make money on commissions. Low PE's and market caps will be noticed. Good news this past week was ignored. That won't last long. We will not climb back to old lofty levels. Everyone will be more careful. That is probably a good thing long term. Having been through three other crashes I can tell you this, buy don't sell into them. It's the only way to get your money back if you didn't get out in time. It's scary but the right thing to do. This crash may force some weak companies out of business permanently. Market evolution. Survival of the fittest. Invest in the leaders therefore, the undervalued gems with great futures and strong niches. You will hear nothing but good news on CNBC for awhile. Today is already in the past. The weekend will cool nerves. Shell-shocked investors will emerge. Stock prices will rebuild, at least gradually. I'm still up for the year (barely). How about you? Hope remains.

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