Here's the latest on how the sell signal is working for me.
But first, I'll review the performance of the markets in
general over the past week.
What a week! The US market dropped about 14% this week.
As of tonight, the US market is 7.1% lower than it was on
1/12/00, when I was first able to act on the sell signal.
Last Friday it was 6.8% higher.
The total international market, as measured by the average
performance of VWIGX and MNIGX, didn't go down quite as
much as the US market this week. It is now down 2.5% since
1/12/00, almost 5% less than the US market. This compares
to last Friday's reading of up 6.2%.
The European market, as measured by the average performance
of PRESX, VEURX, and FEURX, went down almost 8%
from last week; the average is down 0.1% since 1/12/00, as
compared to up 7.7% last week.
Here are the data related to the above paragraphs.
% Diff. Since 1/12/00
Wilshire 5000 -7.1%
VWIGX 2.2%
MINGX -7.3%
Average of VWIGX and MNIGX -2.5%
VEURX -2.7%
PRESX -3.8%
FEURX 6.1%
Ave. of VEURX, PRESX, FEURX -0.1%
I only made one purchase this week: I bought the UTEK back
(at the close) that I sold for $16 a couple of weeks ago.
I've decided to try to catch the cycle again on that one;
it worked so nicely last month. <g>
All in all, I'm 18.1%
better off than I would have been if I had just held
everything. That's a lot better than last week, when I was
6.3% behind. As Kirk might say, let's see if we can catch
the bottom before we brag about getting out at higher
levels.
Here are my sales since the signal, as well as the percent
increase (negative numbers indicate a decrease) in the
prices since I sold.
Security Sell Date %Diff. Since Sale
PBTCX 01/12/00 -21.1%
SRFCX 01/12/00 -7.4%
MNMCX 01/12/00 -4.1%
500 Index 01/12/00 -5.4%
VWIGX 01/12/00 2.2%
CYMI 01/12/00 -6.5%
CYMI 01/31/00 -24.3%
MOT 02/04/00 -29.5%
MOT 02/11/00 -32.1%
PRSCX 02/29/00 -27.2%
UTEK 02/29/00 -29.2%
Average -16.8%
Less Money Market Interest 1.3%
Total Opportunity Cost -18.1% (18.1% Ahead)
Last Week's Value 6.2% (6.2% Behind)
I've got to conclude that it was a very exciting market
this week. Both the international markets and the US
markets are lower than on 1/12/2000, when I was first able
to act on the sell signal. The tech stocks and funds that
I sold have dropped more than twice as much as the overall
US market.
Best wishes,
I2 |
