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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (46392)	4/14/2000 11:39:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (5) of 99985

George, nevertheless, the countertrend rallies will likely be quite powerful...and probably will only serve to trap more inexperienced investors. but they will be playable... re: POG, agree on your common sense remark. a price of 180 would lead to a wave of mine closures and the cost of production is a lot higher than that. heck, the replacement cost for currently mined gold (i.e. exploration costs + cost of starting new projects) is roughly around 350/oz. which is why it makes no sense to hedge at current prices. they are not sustainable anyway. imagine Switzerland announcing on Monday it will keep its 1,500 tons of gold after all...all hell would break loose. the big bullion banks have INCREASED their open gold derivative positions by 50% in Q1. the gold carry trade...which will blow up concurrently with the Euro carry trade imo. bearish bubbles also burst.... regards, hb

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