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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: Rande Is who wrote (24015)	4/15/2000 1:25:00 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) of 57584

Best advice to everyone - have strength, wait this out and let it pass. Or buy into the panic selling whenever it seems absurd. Forget about Monday unless you have a margin call or want to buy more. Within a week or two the bounce from here should be dramatic. And this April sell-off has taken all the wind out of the usual May sell-off. So the seasonal risk is no longer a big factor. Two Octobers ago there was a big crash day. I got a margin crunch. I sold a few I wasn't hot on anymore and loaded up on CIEN at $8. Two months later I sold it at $25. If I hadn't had to sell anything I would have made 200% on my entire portfolio within a month or so. Not saying we're going back up like that now but the lesson I learned was just don't sell at the bottom of a crash. Buy. All the way if you have to. Then just wait. Unless you want to sell something and buy something you like better, especially near the end of the year when you can get a tax loss. The other lesson I've now learned is sell EVERYTHING at what you think might be the market top. Sell it all, be patient and don't get back until a day like today. That is the key to riches. Just damn hard to accomplish. Another aspect to look at. What stocks are still vulnerable? CPQ at $24 near it's lows of the last year or CIEN still 1200% higher than it was 18 months ago? A company like CPQ with 5 billion in cash and the Alta Vista IPO coming out soon should be the safest kind of buy now. If CIEN misses a quarter look out below. Especially in this environment. If CPQ misses it's already at its yearly low so where's it going to go? Back to $19? I sincerely doubt it. Lots of fear, loathing, doom and gloom on the boards tonight. I'm trying to give the other perspective, that the world doesn't end on Monday for most of us. And there is plenty of money to be made fomr these levels. depressing as hell drops this past week but we can onoly look forward. Forward is the only direction there ever is. And I frankly don't think we're in for a recession unless Greenspan and a lot of other powerful people want to cause it. And I don't think they do.

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