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To: elpolvo who wrote (13684)	4/15/2000 5:17:00 AM
From: bela_ghoulashi	Read Replies (2) of 35685

An interesting post from the Yoda3355 club on Yahoo: UPGRADE NASDAQ TO BUY___ rocketlauncher395 (34/M/Ohio,USA) 4/14/00 7:53 pm I realized something today.When i went bearish at 4400 I honestly imagined the following scenario.I thought we would retest the low of 3650 and then rally into late April.I then thought we would sell back off into May and then fail a retest of the low possibly to the 3500 level by June.Then i imagined we would see a summer rally into late July that took us back to the 4500 level.Gollowed by another wave of selling this time retesting the low of 3500 sometime in august.followed by another small rally back to 4000.Then in september I could see another 15% correction that lasted into october and took us all the way down to 3300-3000 level.At which point I would go 100% invested and ride a wave back to test the old high before the end of the year. WELL--you can now condense the entire selling for the whole summer into 1 week. I don't know the statistics for the low of a year occuring in April but i now have to believe it pretty high. I think the average investor has completely out-thought himself over the past week.point being--Mr investor knew the summer is usually weak so he sold.Mr Investor saw that other stocks had been sold off after earnings so he sold before earnings.Mr.investor knew that bad fridays are often followed by bad mondays so he sold again.Mr.investor knows that the market is going to continue to decline so he sets and waits for the "ultimate" price even though the stock he wants is 50-60-70% off it's high. Well i have news for you Mr Investor--You may have out thought yourself.Institutions have to have cash raised by now.They also know that everyone expects a negative close on monday.SO I think we see a selloff on monday down to the 3225 level and then a massive rally that will leave a lot of Mr investors scratching his head wondering---"Why didn't i buy that stock at X dollars" I've seen what panic can do to this market on the downside.Now perhaps we will see what happens when everyone suddenly decides to start buying when there are no sellers left. I think we see two changes in the market next week.First we see THE LARGEST POINT GAIN IN NASDAQ HISTORY and second: we see stocks go up after earnings. As you can tell i'm back to bullish.And before you think I change my position every day--Just remember Bearish at 4400--neutral at 3800---BULLISH at 3300---

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