Est. Fy 2001 eps is .56 projected growth rate of 48%, current price is 78, projected forward PE is 139, pe of 100 would give you a price of 56, PE of 75 would give you 42, PE of 50 close to projected growth rate would be price of 28. The question is at what PE will the market feel comfortable with? After it's all said and done, we are not going into a depression, or recession for that matter, AG has too much fire power and world economy is too powerful for it to happen. The selling will stop, the market will narrow and be more selective, we all know the optical market is not only exploding it is also nascent. I feel the market, once it regains it's footing, will pay a premium for companies that are addressing expanding sectors such as JDSU is. So a 50% premium above the projected growth rate for a conservative PE of 75 so a price in the 50 to 40s would be good enter price for JDSU.
Feel free to the poke holes in the above.
Greg |
