Nokia (NOK) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.730

-0.7%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (4186)	4/15/2000 11:25:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (4) of 34857

Due to the volatile nature of current stock market conditions I am restricting explicit commentary on this topic to Fennougric languages. It's been a tough week for all of us; this is the worst possible moment to have this discussion. So let's have a censored version in English and avoid inflammatory rethoric. This is just one newspaper report and we have to wait until next week to learn more. But if this news is true - it is unfathomable. Nobody is expecting a chipset manufacturer to suddenly announce plans for a 3G network build-up in Japan. It's as if Matsushita suddenly announced that it is trying to force the US government to give it an extra license to operate a phone network in America. This makes no sense. Several notable US analysts have declared that it doesn't matter for Qualcomm which 3G standard wins - Q wins in any case. So why spend 10 billion dollars to build a cdma2000 network in Japan, just to get that standard implemented somewhere outside of North America? If "CDMA is Qualcomm" as Paine Webber hysterically declared - why would Qualcomm panic at the thought of Japan having three W-CDMA networks? Why this extreme reaction? The newspaper that did this Saturday article is the same that broke IDD's W-CDMA decision. And this news item is so specific that it seems unlikely to be a total fabrication. Is this some sort of an April Fool's joke two weeks in advance? Another possible answer is that the global sweep of W-CDMA really would hurt Qualcomm. Maybe because they might not succeed in the chipset market - maybe because the IPR situation is so hairy. Who's going to pick up the tab? Neither Sprint nor Verizon has any experience in Japan; no second generations subscriber base, no retail network, no brand, no nothing. I can't begin to guess how expensive it would be to build all this up from scratch. Using a standard that is incompatible with the 3G standards used by DoCoMo, Japan Telecom and DDI would drive the costs through the roof. This idea may have been possible in February. But this is not February - this is the Bloody April. Wildly expensive telecom projects with no guaranteed return on investment don't look so cute anymore. I can't see the shareholders of any US operator accepting their participation in this plan. Would any company be so out of touch with the current market sentiment that they would float this idea now? The timing couldn't be more tone-deaf. I'm expecting Qualcomm to deny this rumor as soon as possible. They can't be willing to alienate the Japanese operators by declaring a war on them - and this is what building a cdma2000 network with American partners in Japan would mean. Other Asian operators would be livid with rage. A company like Qualcomm can't treat a customer like DDI this way. DDI is supposed to be one of Qualcomm's key allies in Asia - not a mortal enemy. If this report is really a complete hoax, Q has grounds to sue the newspaper - it seems likely that the Friday afternoon reaction at Wall Street was at least partly driven by this newspaper item. Something truly weird is going on. In any case, I think that Nokia's 3G position is looking stronger each passing week. If the company keeps a low profile and avoids getting entangled into messy dogfights with operators, the Asian 3G situation should continue to develop favorably to Nokia. Tero

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next