I don't know. I posted my thoughts a little while ago on misc.invest.stocks. Let me reproduce what I wrote there:
Does anybody have an estimate of the amount of margin calls that must be met on Monday? Everybody talks about them, but I haven't seen any report of the actual size of the problem. For all I know, everybody could have been selling on Friday to AVOID getting a call, and the problem might be much less than assumed. Or it could be much worse. I would have thought, particularly given all the publicity about margin in the past few weeks, that the accounts on the edge would be paying close attention. I speak from personal experience. A couple of years ago I was margined to the hilt, and I would always sell IN ADVANCE of a potential call, thereby avoiding the actual call on all but a couple of occasions (and the calls I got were small).
Even the total amount of margin debt doesn't indicate whether there's a problem, or the problem's size, because it must be taken relative to the positions (both value and volatility) by which it's collateralized. I know Schwab recently has taken a lot of the very volatile stocks out of consideration for margin, and I suspect other brokers have, as well.
Think about this. Total margin debt might actually INCREASE the next few days if unmargined or lightly margined accounts buy bargains on margin, and that could be HEALTHY. It would amount to the transference of assets from weak to strong hands, which is what will ultimately turn this ship around.
Day traders (in theory) should be flat at the end of the day and never have to worry about margin calls, so should not be contributing (at least directly) to the problem. Of course, by playing momentum, they exacerbate any move in either direction.
The "market" (at least as reflected by discussion here and in the press) seems to have gone from speculating on stocks to speculating about margin calls -- sort of a meta-speculation. I think it's a bit bizarre.
I'd appreciate any discussion.
All JMHO, of course. |
