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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (79635)4/15/2000 5:03:00 PM
From: umbro  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
On horses, and bad trades (Niederhoffer Sighting):

Saw this on the MDA thread:
worldlyinvestor.com

Broken Rules, Shattered Expectations By Laurel Kenner and
Victor Niederhoffer Columnists 04/15/2000 9:34 AM

If you can meet with triumph and disaster And treat those
two imposters just the same, You'll be a Man, my son! --
Rudyard Kipling

Every rule on the stock market was broken last week.

Buying after panics didn't work.

Buying on interest-rate declines didn't work.

Buying on a Friday to play the odds for a favorable
government economic report didn't work.

Buying at resistance levels didn't work.

Buying good stocks didn't work.

The one rule that was not broken this week was the principle
of ever-changing cycles invented by Robert L. Bacon. In
Secrets of Professional Turf Betting, Bacon wrote:

"The crazy gambling urge and speculative hysteria that
overcomes most players (makes losses) an certainty. But if
the public play ever did get wise to the facts of life, the
principle of ever-changing cycles of results would move the
form away from the public immediately."

Bacon was talking about betting on horses, but the principle
is even truer for stocks. When you get accustomed to making
money a single way, too many people barrel in. They bull
stocks up to unprecedented, unjustified levels, and when
they run for the exits, the devil take the hindmost.
[...]
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