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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (105978)4/15/2000 5:17:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (1) of 1574006
 
Jimmy,

Some thoughts on Intel shortages.

Unit demand growth is say 15% this year.

Last year CPU volume was say 130M units.

This year volume will be 150M units.

Couple that with essentially zero volumes from IDT,Cyrix,Rise this year that means that Intel will need to ship another 15-20M units over last year.

It is not surprising to me that both AMD and Intel are sold out and will continue to be sold out for rest of year.

And it is entirely possible that with far east growing much faster than 15% a year that overall demand growth for y2K could be closer to 20%+.

Intels cost structure is FAR better than last year as majority of parts feature on chip cache in Q1. So margins will be much improved even though ASP decline will also happen.

regards,

Kash
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