Earlie, I am not sure the Junior golds will be a good place to hide, that is fighting "the last war". I still see nothing on the horizon that will make gold very attractive and it sure has lost its role as "currency of last resort".
As for the dollar, yes, until we get back to a more rational balance of payments or call it lower trade deficits, it will weaken further, but against the yen, apart of a sharp possible climactic excursion to around 85 y/dollar, I think we will stabilize no far (10%) under the current levels.
By the way, Monday or Tuesday, you may finally want to consider covering those bearish bets on RMBS, of course, if it breaks under the $110 to $117, you may want to rush and reestablish these, but for the time being, I think that a 75% haircut from its high and back to its breakout is about right. Oh, if $110 is breached, I think you'll be pretty safe to just under $70, and then, well, a lot of blood will flow through Wall Street's canyons by then, and there surely be enough time to reevaluate.
Zeev |
