Skeeter, you have been following MU long enough to know about the constant decline in the cost of DRAM production. Samsung is simply skimming the fat because MU is late getting into the game. Do you realize that last week, RDRAM prices dropped by 25%? Why? Well maybe some production is coming off the lines of those additional five Dram makers that were qualified and ramping up over the last two months.
The intrinsic cost difference should be no more than 15% between RMBS and its equivalent slower SDRAM, a single feature reduction step will take this difference out. The cost is not the issue, the issue is when are we going to brush against Si intrinsic "speed limitations". I do not see that for another seven years.
As for my technical approach to investing, yes, I use technical analysis heavily, this because I am a homo ignoramus. I have learned long ago that I and my fellow public investors are the suckers in this game, we know of any new fundamental development long after this development is fully reflected in the price of the stock. many times, I will build for myself a "rational fundamental" scenario (remember the MU scenario?) to justify price targets (either declines or ascents), but I pull the trigger when the technical behavior tells me it is right, even if I do not fully understand (here is that Homo Ignoramus again)the fundamentals laying behind a specific move, if any (I have seen many moves that go beyond any rational expectation).l
To bring this post to conclusion, I will simply state that I do not fall in love with a stock, nor do I fall in hate with it. And, my friend, if that is the only lesson I can leave with this august thread, "Dayenu".
Zeev |
