Everything looks good for the summer launch of the EFS-1. 40,000 units at $699 a pop, or about $28 million (with 30%-40% net margins) to be sold exclusively on the internet to a global installed base of X% of the 55 million 35mm SLR installed base. The addressable prosumer market -- pro-ams with $5k to $20k sunk in 35mm cameras and accessories -- is only a small subset of the global market because the initial 'proof of concept' product launch is limited to 5 high-end prosumer camera models. The Meltronix purchase order of $2.8 million works out to a cost basis of about $70/unit for the complete miniaturized CMOS sensor and IC package. I'm assuming that Express is taking care of the assembling the entire package -- e-Film cartridge, e-Port Carrier, and the e-box Storage modules.
The new board member and the Kodak executive should make this e-commerce thing very interesting indeed because once IRSN proves that it can sell the initial batch, it would have the clout and the cashflow to expand the distribution of the next-generation EF-X (simple swap of CMOS/IC package) to include the existing distribution channels for cameras, film and accessories. Remember that 10 million 35mm SLR cameras are expected to be sold this year in the USA alone, with about 40% expected to be sold during the christmas season.
IRSN has an opportunity for a 2 for 1 product cycle here(summer, xmas) that, even if moderately successful, should provide the funds to allow it to accelerate the time to market of its other technologies (flexible chips, chip stacking, MEMs, IrDA, superconductive optical switches) regardless of what the stock market does.
Until then, keep your heads down and your powder dry. We may be early on this long-time contract research outfit trying to transform itself into a heavily internetized industrial and consumer technology holding company. |
