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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (10353)	4/16/2000 2:12:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (2) of 78507

<<Jim, if I understand what you are saying, you are looking at a bottom kind of signal when companies are being bought for cash or by insiders. I don't exactly see that happening now, but I do see quite of bit more consolidation (buyouts for stock or combo stock/cash) in a couple of industries. >> Maybe I was misunderstood. Sectors bottom when you see those signs. I was pointing out that the tech sector is not even close to the point where you will see share buybacks or insider buying. I would guess insider selling may actually accelerate now that the game is over - many of these insiders paid nothing for their shares, so if they can get $50 million instead of $500 million, it still buys a nice house. I emphasize that in many many sectors we are well below the prices at which cash transactions and insider purchases commenced. That is why I remain a fully invested bear, short one sector of the market. I wasn't talking about a bottom for the market where I would start buying - I'm buying now and have been fairly aggressively for the last month. But I have no desire to bottom-fish in tech land, because you don't bottom fish 100 feet above the water level. I have been watching the financial news programs and reading the financial press closely this weekend, and I see very little "buy the dip" talk. In one sense, that makes me confident to stick with my short position. On the other hand, my contrarian side is telling me if the techs are down Monday morning it might be prudent to cover. I am still waiting to hear the horror stories. Many many individual investors margining these garbage internet stocks had to have been cleaned out completely last week. We'll probably end up bailing out their retirement accounts with our tax dollars when this is all over.

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