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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 670.21-1.1%Nov 6 4:00 PM EST
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To: Adam Weiner who wrote (46602)4/16/2000 7:26:00 AM
From: Mike Petriv  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Here's my take on the last two weeks and the future.
Two Tuesdays ago when the market tried to crash (the dress rehearsal for last week) daytraders bought the dump, I mean the dip, and margined up in a desperate attempt to recover their losses (this only served to exacerbate what happened in the following week). The next three days the NASDAQ rose (on light volume) encouraging more doubling up; smarter and more desperate longs were selling into the rally. On Monday some longs could see the emperor had no clothes; by Friday even the blind could see.
For the week ahead I see further carnage as margin induced selling wipes out more and more longs, leading to distress and complete capitulation; liquidity pumped this market and illiquidity will dump it. Looking ahead, 90% of the dot.com, dot.bom, and dot.con companies will be dots; I see no meaningful rally. The final act will come when someone says growth in the expansion of the internet is beginning to slow; this will take down the mightiest of the mighty. This will be followed by recession and cash will be king. In the end, reason will have triumphed over faith, reality over mysticism, and Rand and Greenspan will have been vindicated.
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