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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 153.15+3.3%9:58 AM EST
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To: semi2000 who wrote (8339)4/16/2000 8:57:00 AM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (3) of 10921
 
we all know what prospects of falling b2b means

Falling book to bill means very different things when the shipments are near an all time low, or, near an all time high.

Shipments today, are at or near an all time high. A falling Book to Bill would be a healthy indication that:

the sector is not overheating;
the equipment companies are able to keep up with orders;
lead times are not growing excessively;
prices paid by the chipmakers will remain reasonable;
double booking is unlikely;
etc.

i.e. - a BTB that falls to somewhere between 1 and 1.1 would, IMO, be very healthy. A BTB that remains above 1.2 for an extended period of time would be very unhealthy.

And re your other question. No, I don't believe that the only people buying high tech goods / services were those that had profited from the NASDAQ. In fact, the NASDAQ wealthy represent a very small subsector of those buying high tech goods and services.

Out of the world's 6B people, some of those have different assets / incomes than the 60K people posting at SI.

To believe that everyone is exactly like oneself is utterly ridiculous.

JMHO,
Ian.

PS. Re your PS: Your disaster is a result of your sell decision. You deliberately chose to sell low. Unless you had margin pressures, Mr Market has done to you what it does so well - convinces the novices to sell when they should be buying and to buy when they should be selling.

PS: I am basically cash except CGNX. I took major beating and cancelled all gains with losses. What a disaster!
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