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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jill who wrote (46646)	4/16/2000 1:35:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Jill thanks for the clarification. One thing that I wonder to myself is if this market will at any point in the near term (12 months? 24?) tolerate the massive over-valuation of speculative or even more stable names? I've felt for a long time that when the emotional tide turned on the market, it would take a very long time to unwind the excesses. Not only excesses in price but in investor sentiment and behavior. With so many IPO's of last year having run up from 20$ to 200$ and now back to 30$ (after splits even!) its tempting to think that this psychology change may have already happened, in accelerated time. I don't personally think that myself, it seems more likely that the market will continue to punish through a series of rallies and soul destroying declines. We need to hear that people are leaving the business, their bonus potential for 2000 wiped out now. We need to hear that market gamblers are again focusing on their patients, clients, businesses, children, again. Market news needs to stop being headlines every day. In short, when the market is no longer a national (international) pasttime, perhaps then it will be safe... Or, things could rocket up from here. LOL! Cheers Michael (My contradictory statements tell you why I trade charts and not fundamentals!)

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