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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.19

-0.8%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (46669)	4/16/2000 2:48:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) of 99985

>>>>A return to sane valuations is not "doom and national ruin" ahead<<<< Michael, a couple of excellent posts. There is this bull market stoopid spekulator mentality that anyone who espouses that a return to realistic market gains/revision to the mean is enivitable . . . is a "doom and gloomer". I don't consider myself a doom and gloomer, just a realist. People have become far to fanciful in their expectations. This chart is a beautiful picture of a bull market peak: intelligentspeculator.com The nasdaq started to diverge from the trend significantly in 1990 when the public started becoming more involved in the market, and as the major averages started going sideways in 1998 the speculative nasdaq made a parabolic blow-off run, with people pouring money into tech stock funds and margined tech stock buying into the peak, people caught up in the "new economy" frenzy, not wanting to be left behind the get rich quick train, abandoning any kind of proper asset diversification - they were allocating 90% to tech in the rydex funds. I have to repeat the high school kid who they interviewed on tv yesterday next to his computer "it's just a correction" -g- NOT! i don't know how this will unwind, but i believe you are right the bottoming process will take a lot longer than most people believe, just like the topping process took a lot longer than bears believed. A lot of technicians will use bull market oversold indicators to buy dips and not realize that on the other side of the peak that these indicators will likely only be good for short countertrend rallies, if good at all. b

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