Hello Wolff,
Thank you for the analysis and opinions ... this is a great start for some discussion about the future of these computing platforms. I'm hoping that others might jump in and contribute also ...
I'm in California this week, a variety of meetings with hardware companies to gather more information on wearable computing and wireless technologies. I happened to catch up with a partner from one of my previous start-ups (he's off into high-end digital video and audio) ... we spent the day yesterday discussing the evolution that you and I have been examining.
Two issues that he brought up were highly appropriate ...
1) It's interesting to look back and learn from history. The "terminal" concept which appears to be so easy and cost effective has never really paid off in the end. Good examples go back as far as CP/M and MP/M ... dumb terminals/smart terminals (where I started in the industry) were quickly "wiped out" by the PC. I look around at almost every job where an employee is operating in a "cashier" type position ... you will rarely see anything but PCs. Some are customized, but you almost never see terminals anymore.
The biggest problem is that the "Intels" and "AMDs" of the world have always worked to ensure that the pricing model of the PC made is very difficult for the "terminal" manufacturers to stay alive. One of my good friends at Wyse finally left a number of years back when he realized that the "terminal" market, and "ICA terminal" market was never really going to succeed because of the constant pressure from PCs. Every time that they thought they could sell on a "pricing" basis, the next generation PC would come out, CPU/memory/storage prices would drop, and customers would buy PCs. What's facinating in this space is to see the direction of companies like Compaq. If you observe their direction with these "thin clients" or "terminal-like" devices they have evolved them forward ... first to use WinCE in their T1000, and then to move to full Linux in the newer T1500! So their "thin-client" is becoming a full PC ...
compaq.com
Moving this forward slightly in time, think about the JavaPC ... the "Network Computer". Yes, we heard for years about the way this was going to revolutionize computing and turn the computer industry upside down ... but it didn't quite happen that way. No, instead Intel and AMD and now even Transmeta all see the "ground" that they are working to protect. And they have made all sorts of moves to ensure that the cost/performance still exceeds (or is close enough) so that PCs continue to sell. We discussed how companies like Compaq have jumped into this full force with their new "iPAQ" ... a full blown PC in a smaller, less expensive form factor.
compaq.com
If you read through this, you'll notice that they are moving quickly to provide the "legacy-free" version of the iPAQ with further reduces cost due to the elimination of many of the "legacy" ports (PS/2, DB-9 Serial, DB-25 Parallel) and circuitry. This trend will continue as we can buy and obtain more and more USB and Firewire devices. What enables this revolution is that they are building on the Intel 810 chipset again ... Intel continues to pack more and more functionality into their 810 chipsets, which couple nicely with the newer (and lower cost) Celeron technologies.
developer.intel.com
So what has tended to happen time and time again, is that people embrace the *concept* of the "low cost, small terminal talking to the centralized server" ... but it has never panned out. What has always occurred is that these same people have failed to realize the huge gains in efficiency, and the determination of the major semiconductor companies to deliver new technology and products. And so PCs, and their flexible, general-purpose architectures have won again and again.
A last area that I think is being ignored is "peer to peer" communications. The model of "dumb handheld" connecting to "huge Internet" is just fine ... until you want to really look at the "peer to peer" networking possibilities. I will predict that this will be one of the "killer applications" that you are looking for. The fact that I will be in constant wireless communications with people and places that are in my physical proximity. This interaction, IMHO, will not be going through the Internet, but instead will consist of "ad hoc" networking ... something that Bill Joy and his Jini work agrees with ...
2) The other interesting area that we discussed is yet another application for "wearable" computers ... and something that "terminal" type devices can't provide. That area is mobile multimedia recording and production. My friend and I are both actively involved in experimenting with digital video recording and editing ... he more than I. I like to record a wide range of events and content, and then experiment with editing and streaming multimedia on the Internet. We have both been following closely the rapid cost collapse, and reduction in physical size, of the various "high-end" digital video and audio technologies.
As John (my friend) just returned from the NAB show in Las Vegas, he was promoting a variety of technologies and demonstrations that he has been working on. These include a full Digital Video (DV) video capture and editing suite on a laptop. The fact that this has been reduced in size and cost to this point is incredible. I am now able to use Firewire and pull full digital video content into the laptop and do very high-end editing and content production, and even stream back out to people! Wild stuff ...
Likewise, what's interesting, is that vendors are starting to demonstrate cameras which can record directly to hard disk. And this is where we began to explore the various possibilities. We talked about the fact that current camcorder technologies have decreased in cost so far that concepts like CNN worldwide become possible ... no more need for massively expensive cameras and studio equipment. Instead, the reporter can take a (relatively) cheap DV camcorder into the field and record the content. And if they lose or destroy the camera, it's no longer a $100k device ... it's maybe a $1k device.
So now take this to the next step and imagine the capability of taking your wearable computer, with the full capture, editing, and production software, into the field with you. This is really going to change the world of media and recording ... no more recording to tape, and then capturing, and then sending somewhere for editing. Instead, each CNN reporter could be carrying their entire video recording/editing/production facility with them ...
Oh well ... I have to run ... I'll address the details of your post in my next message!
Take care!
Scott C. Lemon |
