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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum
WDC 164.76+8.3%2:20 PM EST

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (8259)4/16/2000 5:04:00 PM
From: Tom Simpson  Read Replies (1) of 9256
 
<<Is there a way to find out how much excess capacity still exists in the DD components and assembly business ?>>

Very good question Sarmad, but very difficult to answer. The trouble is most of the head and media capacity numbers (in dollar terms) are buried in and lumped with other stuff so its impossible to break out. It is a bit better on the assembly side since we have WDC, HDD, and MXTR to look at in a relatively pure way. Seagate can't be included since it lumps assembly, head, and media in one big number. When it comes to heads/headstacks alone all we have to look at is RDRT and what an unrepresentative mess that is.

At least with regard to the virtual drive companies a lot of the excess has fallen by the wayside. In ppe terms Qntm has 151 million, MXTR 132, and last qtr WDC finally got down to 156 (which is less than half of what they had in 1998 but still a bit fat relative to revenue). By contrast Seagate has 1.6 BILLION, or three times as much as these three put together, supporting revenue about equal to these three put together. Still Seagate makes a little operating money at that level so their internal component operations don't seem to be bleeding red at the same levels as the independents (KMAG, HMTT, RDRT). Nor have they done it by leading in component reduction, i.e. leading in areal density. Just how they ARE doing it is not very clear to me.

Best Regards.....Tom
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