Good day, all - One of the facets of Last Mile technology that shows tremendous potential for investors is the mobile last mile.
My investigations into the arcana of this technology started at OFDM. Presently one can see trends developing, but there are no clear indications of who the winners will be - neither by company, nor technology.
On another board, I posted...
"Well, industry stats now say, on the consumer side, that over 80% of users would prefer to have just one device - and that device is the phone. Never mind that the screen is too small, that data entry is difficult - that is the device they want most. And when you look at users in Japan and Finland using their phones to order concert tickets, you realize - hey, it's true!
But wait, there's more. In the background, working all the time, is Moore's Law: that law says that there is an inverse relationship between computing power and computing price; more precisely, it says that computing power doubles every 18 months. Actually, it has turned out to be faster than that, lately. Concurrently, there have been tremendous advances in the development of ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuits). So now, we can put a whole operating system on a chip, a la Transmeta. And in less than 18 months, we can do more.
Meanwhile, in RF transmission, it's become clear that the best short-term solution to reaching people anywhere, anytime, is to use the 5 GHz and below frequencies, in particular, the PCS bands, which can go through walls and windows, already have an expensive and extensive infrastructure built, and are truly mobile, i.e., you can use them in a moving vehicle, or an elevator.
So, in the consumer market, you have a tremendous "sweet spot" developing, and there is a drive to cram as much functionality into the phone as is possible.
And with Moore's Law, we will see phones that have voice/speech recognition (eliminating the need for keyboards), and data input, perhaps with some kind of "voice signature" that won't let anyone but you use the phone - all built into two or three ASICs instead of 20 discrete, power-hogging modules. Some kind of extendable screen, possibly hybrid plastic will complete the package."
This post was replete with my usual generalizations.>g<
The ITU, last fall, seemed to me to take a position that conceded leadership to no one; handset manufacturers will be asked to incorporate compatibility with several standards.
One of the questions that looms is the evolution to G3 standards - how will it be done? I am seeing some signs that the perceived primacy of CDMA is being re-thought, especially in view of the fact that 70% of existing cellphones in the world are TDMA. Proponents of EDGE are now proclaiming it as "not 2.5G, but really 3G"; there is evidence that the migration path to EDGE is financially and technically easier for owners of existing TDMA infrastucture.
Also, assuming that the abovementioned transition to high-bandwidth cellphone usage occurs, there is evidence that CDMA use is not optimal. Dynamic allocation of bandwidth is easier to achieve using other methodologies.
There are, of course, discussions of this matter on other threads, but they deal with it from the perspective of individual stocks. I should mention that I hold no position in any hardware manufacturer right now; this is simply an attempt to find how this Gordian knot will be unravelled. |
